Great job, everyone! This is what I was looking for: that there are seven possible point margins, as stated above.65 toss power trap wrote:You have to add the possibility that the second possession ends with an offensive safety. Let's say there is a goal-to-go with the offense trailing by 3. The defense blocks the tying field goal attempt, and picks up the loose ball past the line of scrimmage, and retreats into the end zone where the defensive player is tackled. That is a safety, 2 points for the offense, and they lose the overtime period 3-2. This is the only scenario where a score ends the game and the scoring team loses.
There have been no defensive scores in a modified sudden-death (i.e., when there is a 3-0 differential in overtime). So, the highest margin of victory is still the same under standard sudden death, 6 points. But a team leading by 3 can have a 9-point win on a defensive touchdown. Initially, the rules made this more difficult, as they would not count any defensive scores for a team already in the lead, unless the change of possession occurred in the end zone. That has since been changed to allow the final play to run to its conclusion and all scores count.
So the possible overtime margins are only 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9. No overtime has ended with 1, 5, or 9, the only scores that cannot occur in standard sudden death.
A more likely 1-point scenario might be the following: Team A opens OT with a FG, 3-point lead. Team B drives nearly the length of the field. Then Team A intercepts a pass in the field of play just in front of their own goal line, retreats into their own end zone and get tackled by Team B for a safety to end the OT 3-2 and the game. As written in the quoted post, the key is that rules allow this play to continue until its conclusion and the play is not stopped at the change of possession.
The 9 point scenario would be interesting to see happen, and bettors would probably go crazy either for/against that result.