2017 NFL Season Discussion

[sheajets]

Might as well put it here as we're just a little over a week away

Even with the loss of Edelman I think 16-0 is a possibility for N.E. don't seem much in terms of resistance. Chiefs I suppose week 1 could pick them off. Raiders or Steelers (Pitt has so much trouble with them) could too. Jets and Bills are already in the Darnold/Allen/Rosen etc tank and will field noncompetitive squads. Really if the Patriots go worse than 14-2 it would be shocking

How will Carolina rebound? And Atlanta from that crippling loss and almost unprecedented idiotic playcalling

Will Beckham be ready for week 1? Is NYG/NE III in the cards?

Can Cutler salvage Miami's season?

What rookie surprises do you anticipate?

[Rupert Patrick]

I'll take a whack at my 2016 preseason predictions (seedings in parenthesis):

AFC East

1 - New England (1)
2 - Buffalo
3 - Miami
4 - NY Jets

AFC North

1 - Pittsburgh (4)
2 - Cincinnati
3 - Baltimore
4 - Cleveland

AFC South

1 - Houston (3)
2 - Tennessee (6)
3 - Indianapolis
4 - Jacksonville

AFC West

1 - Kansas City (2)
2 - Oakland (5)
3 - Denver
4 - LA Chargers

NFC East

1 - Dallas (4)
2 - Washington
3 - NY Giants
4 - Philadelphia

NFC North

1 - Minnesota (2)
2 - Green Bay (5)
3 - Detroit
4 - Chicago

NFC South

1 - Atlanta (1)
2 - Carolina
3 - Tampa Bay
4 - New Orleans

NFC West

1 - Arizona (3)
2 - Seattle (6)
3 - San Francisco
4 - LA Rams

Wild Card games - Pittsburgh over Oakland, Houston over Tennessee, Arizona over Seattle, Green Bay over Dallas
Divisional games - New England over Pittsburgh, Kansas City over Houston, Atlanta over Green Bay, Arizona over Minnesota
Championship games - New England over Kansas City, Atlanta over Arizona
Super Bowl LII - New England over Atlanta

[74_75_78_79_]

Doubt I'll predict entire standings but, yes (as said), loss of Edelman (and Nink's retirement) shouldn't deter Pats from another Lombardi especially with Gronk now back; won't predict 16-0 though. I expect Chris Hogan to really make bigger waves this year.

Steelers will further improve. Martavis Bryant being back ought to help and also the sudden addition of Joe Haden! I see them still bettering Chiefs & Raiders in '17 as well as winning division, they'll earn a bye-week but they simply won't pass Pats in late-January home-field (top-seed, perhaps beating Pats this December) or not.

Dolphins will suffer a letdown after their mere playoff run last year. Now over last year's sophomore slump, do Bowles' Jets have a winning season again?

Pats' SB-opponent? Giants (on 10 year, and 1 day, anniversary of that historic upset) not unlikely at all! Or maybe the Cards who I feel will be back! Carolina ought to be winners again although not quite 15-1. Expect Christian McCaffrey to have a breakout year and be quite a complement to Cam! If Mike Trubinsky makes it into the lineup this year, don't be surprised if he makes headlines as well. Look out for TJ Watt! Letdown/SB-hangover in Atl? Not going to predict. They have so much talent and Quinn's looking like a great coach! They should be even better this year, but it's a matter of psychologically getting over last year.

[ChrisBabcock]

They have so much talent and Quinn's looking like a great coach!

Their improvement on defense as the year went on last year was interesting. Shanahan is gone but that offense should still be potent. That being said my early SB prediction is Atlanta over New England. When I get a chance I'll crunch W-L numbers for the whole league.

[falconfan58]

I watched that game and for the first half and part of the second,Atlanta was tearing NE apart.But,thanks to the D of the Falcons running out of gas,from being on the field too long,and some STUPID play calling,I still think KS was focusing TOO much on that 49ers job,they gave up the biggest comeback in SB history.I think this year,barring a MAJOR injury,RYAN,BRADY,I dont think Jimmy G is that good,but I may be wrong etc,I wouldn't be surprised to see a rematch.

[7DnBrnc53]

The Pats lost three pass rushers (Ninkovich, Ealy, and rookie Derek Rivers), they lost a key third-down receiver (Edelman), and Dwayne Allen is a downgrade from Martellus Bennett. This really isn't a better team than last year's, and they only won because they faced several weak QB's last year in the regular season (and Oz in the playoffs), and because Atlanta messed up. I don't think they get back this year. It will be the Steelers or Raiders against Atlanta.

[Rupert Patrick]

I did want to make some observations about the upcoming season:

1 - I think the Raiders will be a trendy choice to pick for the Super Bowl, but I think they're going to need more improvement on defense to move to the next level. Next to the Patriots, the Chiefs are clearly the best bet to repeat as division champs in 2017. I think the Raiders will suffer from the sophomore jinx in 2017 to an extent, regress a little, and win 9-10 games.

I studied the so-called Plexiglass Principle with regards to pro football for my upcoming book, and looked at all teams who improved (or declined) in one season, and found that in two-thirds of all cases, they changed direction the following season. That is, if a team improves one season, two-thirds of the time they will decline the following season, and vice versa. I also set up a study to figure out the extent to estimate how far a team would change direction in the following season. I came up with the following formula:

W3 = W2 - .4 * (W2 - W1)

In the case of the Raiders, they won 7 games in 2015, then they improved in 2016, winning 12 games. W1 would be their 2015 wins (7), W2 their 2016 wins (12) and W3 their predicted wins for 2017. Thus, we would estimate:

W3 = 12- .4 * (12 - 7) or W3 = 12 - .4 * (5) or W3 = 12 - 2 = 10 wins

2 - I think the Cowboys will also be a trendy choice to pick for the Super Bowl, but I expect them to slip a little, win maybe 10-11 games. I think they were playing a little over their heads last year and the league will catch up with Shepherd this year.

The formula we used for the Raiders will also work for the Cowboys, as the Cowboys won 4 in 2015 and improved to 13 in 2016:

W3 = 13- .4 * (13 - 4) or W3 = 13 - .4 * (9) or W3 = 13 - 3.6 = 9.4 wins

I think the Cowboys will do a little better than that.

3 - How will the Browns do? They went 3-13 in 2015 and 1-15 in 2016, for a combined winning percentage of .2500 over both seasons. I checked and there were 16 such teams in pro football history since 1933 that went a combined .2500 or less over two consecutive seasons, as I am omitting three that would wind up going defunct within five years after the second season. Of those 16, within five years after the second of the two seasons, (which for the Browns would be 2021), they would have won a total of five Super Bowls (1968-69 Steelers, 1988-89 Cowboys, 1978-79 49ers). Another team on the list is the 1984-85 Bills, who would narrowly lose Super Bowl XXV in 1990, and the 1967 Raiders, (1961-62 OAK) who lost Super Bowl II. Other teams on the list who lost NFC/AFC Championship games within that five-year window include the 1978 Oilers (1972-73 Hou), 1979 Bucs (1976-77 TB), 1998 Jets (1995-96 NYJ). In addition, the 1987 Colts (1981-82 BAL) and 1987 and 1988 Oilers (1982-83 HOU) also made the postseason, along with the 2011 Lions (2008-09 DET). That is a total of 11 of the 16 teams who turned their fortunes around in five years. The ones who did not? The 1960-61 Redskins, 2008-09 Rams, 1939-40 Eagles, 1967-68 Falcons and 1985-86 Bucs. The three teams who went defunct were the 1947-48 Chicago Rockets of the AAFC, 1949-50 Baltimore Colts of the AAFC/NFL, and the 1943-44 Brooklyn Dodgers/Tigers.

With regards to Cleveland, I expect them to win 3-4 games in 2016. How will they do in 2021? I have no earthly idea at this time, but it will be interesting to see if history holds. When a team gets this bad, this really bad, as they Browns have gotten in recent years, something will happen. As wretched as the Bucs franchise had become in the 80's and 90's, they were able to turn things around very quickly. It can happen again.

4 - I think the 49ers could improve significantly this season, and win five or six games. For one thing, I think the two weakest teams in the year will be the Rams and Bears, which should give San Francisco possibly three wins right there. For another thing, the Kaepernick issue is behind them. I'm not going to get into the politics of the Colin Kaepernick situation, but it clearly played a role in sinking the 49ers season. Instead of press conferences with questions about how Fred's hamstring was coming along, all the questions were about a one minute event that occurred before the game even began, and what this guy and that guy was doing during it. Hopefully everybody will get back to the game at hand, and talking about Fred's hamstring, and not to what happens for one minute before the game begins.

5 - How does the AFC North shake out? I think the Bengals bounce back to form, and it's a three way race. Pittsburgh should win the division as they have too much talent, but I expect the Bengals to win 8 or 9 games this year.

6 - It looks like Houston is going to own the AFC South over the next few years. I expect DeShaun Watson to be the missing piece for the Texans and have great success in the NFL. I've watched him throughout his years at Clemson and I think he's ready to take on the NFL. He'll have the starting job by Halloween if not sooner.

7 - Were the 2015 Panthers a fluke? Of the 31 teams who have finished the regular season with a winning percentage over .9000 before 2014, only one, the 1963 NFL Champion Bears, did not finish .5000 or better the following season. Chicago dropped to 5-9 in 1964 and rebounded to 9-5 in 1965. The Panthers are not a 6-10 team, but not quite a 15-1 team either. The're somewhere in the middle, a 9-7 or 10-6 team, a wild card team, but not quite as good as the Falcons.

8 - Did I say Falcons? I think they'll put the last 20 minutes of regulation in Super Bowl LI behind them as they go into the 2017 season. I remember telling people before the game I thought if the Falcons scored 30 points, they would win the game. It turned out if they could have gotten that field goal with about three minutes to play, it would have given them 31 points, put the game away and New England would not have been able to tie it. But by the time regulation ended, I knew New England was going to win unless there was some sort of fluke like they fumbled the opening kickoff deep in their territory, or Atlanta returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Falcons mistakes cost them the Super Bowl; they had the game won and they didn't try to burn up the clock in the second half when they should have. They have nobody to blame but themselves, and I hope they can overcome that.

I think they will redouble their efforts, and repeat as NFC Champs in 2017. I expect Dallas to slip a little, and their toughest obstacles I think will be Minnesota and Green Bay. Seattle will have to start retooling, and I expect Arizona to rebound and challenge the Seahawks in the West although Seattle will win the division.

9 - Speaking of the Seahawks, they finished third in the league in fewest points allowed in 2016. This broke a four-year streak in which they allowed the fewest points in the NFL. You would probably think this is a record, but it isn’t – the Browns led the league in fewest points allowed from 1953-57, but those leagues were 12 teams as opposed to 32 in today’s NFL, which makes Seattle’s accomplishment more impressive in my opinion.

[74_75_78_79_]

Very comprehensive post, Rupert (didn't want to take up all that space quoting it)!

I forgot to mention Dallas who I think will let-down this year as well; only IMO it'll likely result in no playoffs at all. They ought to return in 2018 thus becoming a post-season-regular in the following years in this new Dak/Zeke era.

Seahawks, I agree, now need retooling if they want to reopen that now-shut SB window. Cards will take division although 'Hawks likely finish above-500 (maybe playoffs, maybe not) just the same.

Don't count Broncos or Redskins out of each finishing at least 2nd in their respective divisions with everyone seeming to be saying KC-or-Oak, Dal-or-NYG for both. Eagles may surprise!

Back to Jets...for what's it's worth, and not exactly going out on limb anyway, I'll have them finishing 2nd in division - even if at a 500 mark.

Yes, Texans should again own their weak division, but may actually have a better year yet under O'Brien!

Hate to say, but unless Drew Brees finishes his career with another team, he won't ever return to the playoffs. This year Saints finish last. Division has gotten way too tough now. Don't forget the Bucs! Koetter, Jameis & Co could very well win it.

And with Aaron Rodgers as Green Bay's QB, no point in me being 'creative' by picking anyone else other than the Pack to win the NFC Central!

[Reaser]

2017 Predictions

-AFC WEST-
OAK 10-6
KC 10-6 (WC tiebreaker over TEN)
DEN 8-8
LAC 7-9
-AFC NORTH-
PIT 12-4
CIN 11-5 (WC)
BAL 9-7
CLE 2-14
-AFC SOUTH-
HOU 10-6
TEN 10-6
IND 8-8
JAX 2-14
-AFC EAST-
NE 14-2
MIA 6-10
BUF 4-12
NYJ 2-14

-NFC WEST-
SEA 13-3
ARI 11-5 (WC)
LAR 3-13
SF 2-14
-NFC NORTH-
GB 13-3
MIN 9-7 (WC)
DET 6-10
CHI 3-13
-NFC SOUTH-
ATL 13-3
NO 9-7
CAR 8-8
TB 6-10
-NFC EAST-
NYG 10-6
PHI 8-8
WAS 8-8
DAL 7-9

AFC: Same exact prediction/thought I had last year, Patriots coast through the season and the AFC playoffs with the Steelers being the clear #2 team in the AFC but a distant #2 ... NE to the SB.

NFC: Cards and Vikes as WC teams just as filler, won't go anywhere. Packers defense costs them in the Divisional round. 3 teams with a chance at the SB. Seahawks and Giants will have the two best defenses so they'd be my favorites. If Seattle avoids Atlanta in the playoffs then they're NFC Champs. If not then it's Falcons-Giants for the NFC. Whoever comes from the NFC beats a favored NE team in the SB.

Super Bowl: Seattle over New England

[ChrisBabcock]

-AFC EAST-
NE 14-2
MIA 6-10
BUF 4-12
NYJ 2-14

I haven't gone through my whole league predictions yet but I'm pretty sure this is my exact AFC East exactly record for record.