Shane Lechler HOF?

[NWebster]

Rankings certainly don't tell everything...and Lechler had some great years...and those will carry him through, but as the net punting era began in 1976 (when stat was invented) Guy was in the top 8 more often in net...and Lechler had several years where he was not even in top 20 in net.

I guess it's a matter of taste, he's better than Stark and Saurbraun who were the booming types, but it's the Roby-types I prefer

Interested in the groups' thoughts on this but when a guy goes from top 2-3 in both gross and net to top 2-3 in gross and 20's in net then back to top 2-3 in both again I tend to think that it's not that he's inherently a "boomer" who doesn't care about field position or hang time but rather that it's a function of the return coverage being inconsistent. Thoughts? Also, and I can't believe I'm only thinking of this now, but there should be Average net of touch backs - almost fully in control of the punter and then final Net. So for example you could be at 48.3 Gross, 46.5 net of TB's and 41.2 All In Net. Feels like that would add some insight anyway, thoughts on that?

[Rupert Patrick]

Rankings certainly don't tell everything...and Lechler had some great years...and those will carry him through, but as the net punting era began in 1976 (when stat was invented) Guy was in the top 8 more often in net...and Lechler had several years where he was not even in top 20 in net.

I guess it's a matter of taste, he's better than Stark and Saurbraun who were the booming types, but it's the Roby-types I prefer

Interested in the groups' thoughts on this but when a guy goes from top 2-3 in both gross and net to top 2-3 in gross and 20's in net then back to top 2-3 in both again I tend to think that it's not that he's inherently a "boomer" who doesn't care about field position or hang time but rather that it's a function of the return coverage being inconsistent. Thoughts? Also, and I can't believe I'm only thinking of this now, but there should be Average net of touch backs - almost fully in control of the punter and then final Net. So for example you could be at 48.3 Gross, 46.5 net of TB's and 41.2 All In Net. Feels like that would add some insight anyway, thoughts on that?

I think we need to rethink how we look at rating punters. In my manuscript, which is currently at the publishers, I went the play by play and for all punts for the 1961 AFL and 2018 NFL seasons, noting the distance from the end zone the punting is punting toward, the distance of the punt, and whether or not the punt went out of bounds. I developed what is version 1.0 of a punter rating system, where I measured average of all punts, average of all punts where the line of scrimmage is 60 yards or more from the end zone the punter is punting toward, average of all punts where the line of scrimmage is less than 60 yards from the end zone the punter is punting toward, percentage of punts that go out of bounds, and percentage of punts that are touchbacks.

For each of the five categories, I rated each punter who had enough punts from 1 for lowest, 2 for second-lowest, etc, except for touchbacks, where I rated the punter with the highest percentage of touchbacks with 1, second-highest with 2, and so on. I then took the five values for each punter and used an averaging technique to arrive at a punting rating between one and zero, one being best. In the 1961 AFL, Wayne Crow of Oakland finished first with a punter rating of .71, followed by Jim Norton of Houston at .66. In the 2018 NFL, the three highest rated punters, in order, were Brett Kern of Tennessee (.892), Johnny Hekker of LA (.849) and Michael Dickson of Seattle (.838).

I purposely avoided net average because net average is heavily influenced by the return guy, and I am trying to focus as much as i could on the performance of the punter, not the other ten guys on his side or the guy returning the punt. The system I developed is a first step; after more research and input from those who know more about punting than I do, the categories will be adjusted, but I think, like passing, for punters we need to evaluate them by a number of different categories. If you think about it, punters are often doing several different things at the same time, and punting isn't just trying to boot the ball for the highest possible average.

[JohnTurney]

I purposely avoided net average because net average is heavily influenced by the return guy, moreover I am trying to focus as much as i could on the performance of the punter, not the other ten guys on his side or the guy returning the punt. .

Looking forward to it. However, a punter's performance includes the responsibility to negate a great returner. And as such, net punting it the most important stat of a punter according to ST coaches I've talked to. Even the best punt returners cannot return an ideal punt.

So, the punters who can do that the best, have the highest net punting average over time. Yes there are other influence, but the punter is the key to making those gunners and the rest perform to the maximum.

So, while there are several metrics that are things I look at, net punting is the best for the reasons mentioned here and others. Not the ONLY thing, but a major, major thing.

Directional punting, hitting the target and not crossing up your coverage is important. Not hitting it fat and getting a touchback, avoiding super negatives where possible, (catching the snap, getting punt off, etc).

It's all quite interesting. But Bill Belichick will talk a lot of situational punting, but net yards is what he's after.

[sluggermatt15]

Interesting analysis, very, very great insight, folks. IF Lechler is a finalist, to what weight do you think he would receive as a punter compared to other position players? It seems as though the committee weighs positions differently.

[Rupert Patrick]

Interesting analysis, very, very great insight, folks. IF Lechler is a finalist, to what weight do you think he would receive as a punter compared to other position players? It seems as though the committee weighs positions differently.

With Lechler, one thing you have to consider is the length of his career. He played 18 seasons, missed a total of two games; he only trails Jeff Feagles in career punts and career punting yards. He had an outstanding career, and a very long career, and one of the things that I really think helps his case is his 49.0 punting average in his final season, 2017, at age 41, which was second in the NFL. He was a consistently very good punter his entire career. His lowest single season punting average was in 2002 (42.5), the next lowest was 45.7 in 2005, and that figure was good enough to lead the NFL. Looking at Net Yards per Punt, six times he finished in the top three in a 32-team league, meaning he was in the top ten percent of the punters in the league for a third of his career. Finished first or second in the NFL 11 times in 18 seasons in gross punting average.

Length of career and the fact he was among the top ten percent of the players at his position one-third to two-thirds of his career is something few players can put in their Hall of Fame resume. It took Ray Guy 23 years to get into the HOF; I doubt it will take Lechler quite that long as I think (I hope) the voters understand more about the value of special teams players than they did in the past. Of course, as special teamers go, Adam Vinatieri will likely be a first ballot inductee to the HOF once he retires, and it will be interesting to see how much support Devon Hester gets.