Thoughts on Broncos-Pats AFC Championship game

[Bryan]

*I thought the Patriots would win the game by forcing Peyton Manning into mistakes and intercepting his loopy throws. But it was Brady who made the uncharacteristic bad throw...the 1st half INT by Von Miller was one of the biggest plays of the game, IMO. It was also surprising that Manning led the Broncos the length of the field for a TD on their opening possession. It was their best (only?) drive all game.

*The backwards pass play was weird. When I saw it in real time, I thought Hillman should fall on the ball just in case. But then when the refs blew the play dead, I thought that was that. I actually agreed with Mike Carey's assessment (always a bad thing) that there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the original call. But, as usual, the NFL instant replay is just a coin flip and it came up for the Pats (and against Wade Phillips/home run throwback).

*It seemed like a big part of New England's gameplan was to isolate RB White on LB Hightower out wide on passing plays. I think this resulted in 5 incompletions. If White had better ball skills or was better at drawing pass interference penalties, then the Patriots might have had something with this.

*New England has done the "spread and shred" all year with good success, but it seemed like they needed to keep more people in to block. Miller or Ware would simply rush the edge and get to Brady in 1.5 seconds. It was almost comical at times.

*I had thought Peyton Manning was washed up after seeing him in preseason when he first went to the Broncos...he looked like the 1970 version of Johnny Unitas...no arm strength, has to throw everything early just to avoid interceptions. But then he went on to throw like 50 TDs that year. I thought he was REALLY done after his last regular season performance this year...yet here he is in the Super Bowl. Its hard to decide if you would rank Manning above or below Brady on a mythical top10 QB list.

*I am a huge Wade Phillips fan. I've even forgiven him for benching Doug Flutie. He really is one of the best D-coordinators in NFL history. It would be interesting to do a comparison of Phillips to guys like Buddy Ryan, Bill Arnsparger, Dick LeBeau, etc. The NFL is a weird league when a guy like Phillips has to beg for a job yet Rob Ryan doesn't go 15 minutes without being employed.

*Glad to see Owen Daniels do well in the postseason. He's carved out a nice NFL career, and he was always my midseason fantasy TE pickup.

*Despite misfiring on offense, New England could have very easily won that game...and then the two Gronkowski receptions would have been legendary. The awareness to avoid stepping out of the end zone on the TD reception was remarkable. I thought Gronkowski kind of got jobbed on the 4th down end zone play late in the game...probably wouldn't have caught a lob pass in double coverage, but Talib clearly had a handful of Gronk's jersey which kept him from getting maximum height on his jump. Ref was right there, too. Gronkowski is the best TE I've ever seen since Kellen Winslow.

*Disagreed with Belichick's decision to eschew the FG with 2:30 left, down 8, and 3 TOs remaining. I don't think NE had successfully-converted a 2 pointer all year, and they would have needed to do so when they bypassed the FG. Denver's offense had been in hibernation for the entire 2nd half. Perhaps Belichick didn't think he would get the ball back.

*The 2 point conversion was also weird. I don't know if the play was designed for Brady to roll out (which is the dumbest play that the NFL always tries...the rollout with the dropback QB), or if he was just flushed to his right due to pressure. Regardless, it looked like Gronk was open and I think he had to be the primary target on the play. Perhaps Brady didn't see Gronk or didn't think he could throw accurately enough on the run/roll out, but his decision to throw back to the middle of the field into all the traffic was puzzling.

[James]

*The backwards pass play was weird. When I saw it in real time, I thought Hillman should fall on the ball just in case. But then when the refs blew the play dead, I thought that was that. I actually agreed with Mike Carey's assessment (always a bad thing) that there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the original call. But, as usual, the NFL instant replay is just a coin flip and it came up for the Pats (and against Wade Phillips/home run throwback).

Explain to me about the rule, please. It was a lateral/backwards pass. Live ball. A Patriot player picked It up and took it to the endzone for a TD. Ruling on field incomplete pass. Belichick challenged the play and indeed the call was overturned and it as a lateral/backwards pass, Patriots ball. WHY was it NOT A TD? It was a LIVE BALL, and a Patriot player did take it to the endzone. If I sound like an idiot I'm sorry, but could someone, and I'm being serious here, explain the rule/ruling to me as if I were a two year old, please.

[nicefellow31]

*The backwards pass play was weird. When I saw it in real time, I thought Hillman should fall on the ball just in case. But then when the refs blew the play dead, I thought that was that. I actually agreed with Mike Carey's assessment (always a bad thing) that there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the original call. But, as usual, the NFL instant replay is just a coin flip and it came up for the Pats (and against Wade Phillips/home run throwback).

Explain to me about the rule, please. It was a lateral/backwards pass. Live ball. A Patriot player picked It up and took it to the endzone for a TD. Ruling on field incomplete pass. Belichick challenged the play and indeed the call was overturned and it as a lateral/backwards pass, Patriots ball. WHY was it NOT A TD? It was a LIVE BALL, and a Patriot player did take it to the endzone. If I sound like an idiot I'm sorry, but could someone, and I'm being serious here, explain the rule/ruling to me as if I were a two year old, please.

Since the officials originally called it an incomplete pass, then that means that they blew the whistle to kill the play.

[James]

No shit. Damn that was too easy.

[rhickok1109]

No shit. Damn that was too easy.

To elaborate just a bit, the general thinking is that someone might have tackled Freeny if the whistle hadn't blown. I don't think anyone could have, but that's the theory behind the ruling. Upon replay, it was ruled a fumble with a clear recovery by the Patriots, but the ball was dead so they get possession at the spot of the recovery.

[oldecapecod11]

by rhickok1109 » Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:31 pm
"To elaborate just a bit, the general thinking is that someone might have tackled Freeny if the whistle hadn't blown. I don't think anyone could have, but that's the theory behind the ruling. Upon replay, it was ruled a fumble with a clear recovery by the Patriots, but the ball was dead so they get possession at the spot of the recovery."

However, the key factor is when the whistle was blown.
If the official blew the whistle the instant it was thought to be an incomplete pass then it should have remained Denver ball.
How did the replay official determine when the whistle blew? Is the replay system equipped with sound?
This is hardly a bang-bang play as a call might be for a 1st-base umpire.
If it was determined that the ball was touched by Freeny before the whistle, then it is - as it was - Patriot's ball at that spot.

[bachslunch]

Stephen Gostkowski's extra point miss was absolutely huge. If he makes it, the final Pats TD ties the game with a conventional point after and they go into overtime. With that miss, they have to go for two which was much less definite -- and they indeed missed it. Ironically, it was the Pats who initiated the longer XPT distance which very likely contributed to Gostkowski's miss (am pretty sure he makes it from closer in as the kick faded late).

Also, Gostkowski hadn't missed a point after since 2006, nearly 10 years ago. No question he picked a bad time to shank one. It's a little like Gary Anderson's FG miss in the postseason after being perfect in the regular season in 1998 only not as dramatic.

[mwald]

Gostkowski's missed PAT was indeed huge but I don't understand the criticism Belichick is getting for not going for the field goal later in the game. Sure, in hindsight it looks like the wrong decision. But had Belichick opted to kick the field goal (assuming Gostkowski makes it) the Broncos may very well have been more aggressive on the next drive. Critics should not assume everything would've played out exactly the same from that point on.

It's the butterfly flapping its wings in Africa setting off a chain of events resulting in a hurricane in North America theory.

[Reaser]

I thought Hillman should fall on the ball just in case.

I actually agreed with Mike Carey's assessment (always a bad thing) that there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the original call. But, as usual, the NFL instant replay is just a coin flip and it came up for the Pats (and against Wade Phillips/home run throwback).

Hillman definitely should have got on the ball, just in case. That's almost standard and he should have been aware, you could hear when he was on the sidelines someone yelling that (at him?).

I laughed when Carey was 'wrong' on how it would be called - per usual, as we all talked about in that past thread.

Though I was mildly surprised it was overturned ... and exactly, the system is just a coin clip.

*I am a huge Wade Phillips fan. I've even forgiven him for benching Doug Flutie.

I'm a Phillips fan also, he has a lot on our forum, so it seems. The Flutie benching was a decision made above him (which he hinted at, and is very believable.)

In another thread last night, I mentioned the PAT and the irony that Belichick was leading the way on that change (bachslunch mentioned it in this thread, as well) ... To me, that's really the difference, not the second guessing of calls and such (as mwald points out, the game can't be assumed to have played out exactly the same) though with the PAT, it's very likely not much - if anything at all - would have changed in the way the game was played up to the 2-pt attempt (or at least up the point where NE went for it on 4th down instead of taking the FG / if that decision was based at all on needing 8 pts instead of 7). And had the rule not been changed it's close to 100% that Gostkowski would have made the earlier PAT and then the final TD would have tied the game. Doesn't mean NE would have won, because it would have been going to OT from there, but it does mean that the miss heavily contributed to the loss. Moreso than anything else, in my opinion. Game was essentially played even through four quarters, the difference is a missed PAT. In a way, the game was decided by a gimmick, the gimmick PAT. I don't like that but what happened, happened.

[Jay Z]

Gostkowski's missed PAT was indeed huge but I don't understand the criticism Belichick is getting for not going for the field goal later in the game. Sure, in hindsight it looks like the wrong decision. But had Belichick opted to kick the field goal (assuming Gostkowski makes it) the Broncos may very well have been more aggressive on the next drive. Critics should not assume everything would've played out exactly the same from that point on.

It's the butterfly flapping its wings in Africa setting off a chain of events resulting in a hurricane in North America theory.

If the Broncos would have been more aggressive after a FG, they would have been MUCH more aggressive after a TD and two point conversion!!!

I have come down on the side that going for it the first time was the wrong move. Even if the TD and two point conversion count as one score (debatable), the fact is the Patriots needed two scores at some point to win the game anyway. They were going to need to stop the Broncos anyway.

Even if they convert the first fourth down, they are not even first and goal (assuming only a couple of yards are gained.) Even if they eventually get in, make the two point conversion, now the game is tied, but plenty of time for the Broncos to score as well. If the Patriots can't make a stop and get the ball back with reasonable time, they're going to lose the game anyway.

So the FG/4th down decision didn't change the fact that they were going to need a stop. It didn't change the fact they needed another score to win the game. A FG (if made) would have taken away the need for a 2 point conversion to win the game. They kick the FG, still need a TD, they need a stop anyway to get their one more chance, and go for a TD then. If they get a TD then, they're up one, still go for two but they can win either way. Given the odds I do think Beilichik called it wrong in this instance.