SB Betting Lines Early Years

[Rupert Patrick]

The 1969 Vikings were awesome. They led the NFL in points scored and led the NFL in points allowed. They outscored teams by an average of 17.6 points per game in the regular season, which rises to 19.5 once you exclude the meaningless regular season finale that Minnesota didn't try to win. To this day, they are only of just 5 teams to outscored opponents by 250+ points through 13 games: MIN 1969 (+253), BAL 1968 (+254), GB 1962 (+264), NE 2007 (+282), CHI 1942 (+292 in 11 games).

So the line there made a lot of sense. Now KC was a great team, but that wasn't quite understood at the time. They dominated the AFL, but so did the Raiders in '67 and they lost by 19 in the Super Bowl to a worse NFL team.

As for 1972, that one is a little harder to justify, but Miami did get blown out in the prior year's game. Sure, Miami's schedule was easy, but so was Washington's. In week 3, Washington lost to New England, who Miami beat by 68 points in two games. Washington went 4-1 against teams with winning records during the regular season (with one of those wins coming with Jurgensen), Miami went 2-0. Miami outscored teams by 15 points per game, Washington 8. Now, in the playoffs, Washington looked better, but it does seem clear that Miami was the better team.

The problem with the betting lines in Super Bowls III and IV is that nobody knew the relative difference between the leagues because the two leagues never played one another. I think it was clear that the Jets and Chiefs (and Raiders) were just as strong as the Rams and Browns and Cowboys in the late 60's. By the time the AFL was absorbed into the NFL, I think the AFL was relatively about equal to the NFL. However, in 1968 and 69 the Colts and Vikings were head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL, but I think the unfamiliarity with the Jets and Chiefs, and taking them lightly perhaps, was the reason they lost the Super Bowls. The AFL had a lot of former NFL guys in the league who were familiar with the NFL offenses, but there weren't many AFL guys who jumped to the NFL who could provide them with information about how the AFL offenses and defenses differed from the NFL.

If you go back and rewatch Super Bowl III, you can see that the Jets had outplayed the Colts in the first half, but you can also see that with the right breaks, the Colts could have had 17 or 21 points on the board by halftime, which would have forced Namath to scrap the running game and go to the vertical passing game would have turned the second half into a shootout. I also think that the Colts should have brought in Unitas to start the second half, if not sooner, when it was clear they were in trouble and Morrall wasn't getting the job done.

In Super Bowl IV I think it was the Vikings were not prepared for Stram's complex formations, and the Chiefs were up for the game and took Minnesota apart.

As far as Super Bowl VII and the point spread is concerned (most accounts I have seen have Washington as a one-point favorite over Miami) could be due to the fact that Miami struggled to beat Pittsburgh and Cleveland in the postseason, while Washington destroyed the defending Super Bowl Champs in the NFC Championship game.

[SixtiesFan]

Even though the Rams were only 9-7 that season I'm surprised the line was still that high.

The Rams had been up and down all season (hence the record) and they needed a 50-yard TD pass with two minutes left to beat Dallas by two in the playoff game. Then, they faced a Tampa Bay team that had nearly choked away their big division lead before upsetting the Eagles in the first round. In the LA-TB championship game, the Rams could manage just three field goals, and had the benefit of an already weak Bucs offense being forced to use Mike Rae at QB after Doug Williams was knocked out in the third quarter. Tampa Bay had actually scored a touchdown with 2:37 left, but it got called back on an illegal procedure call. Against the Steelers of that era, who were going for their fourth Super Bowl in six years, the line seems about right.

In the first half, Doug Williams had a receiver open for a TD and threw the ball 10 yards over his head, sailing out of bounds. Mike Rae threw the pass for a TD that was called back.

[Evan]

Regarding Miami being an underdog in Super Bowl VII, I recall reading that at the time, Don Shula had a rep of not being able to win the big one, having been beaten with the Colts in 1964 and 1968, and Miami in 1971. His teams scored a total of one TD in those games. For those who remember the feeling about Shula before Super Bowl VII, please correct me if I am mistaken.

Also, I think the decisive and emotional way the Redskins knocked off defending champ Dallas (with Staubach as QB) in the NFC Championship influenced bettors too. I think that game (Bob Gill, other Redskin historians please confirm) is considered one of the loudest and most emotional games ever at RFK (with the 1982 NFC Championship possibly topping it 10 years later).

[Bob Gill]

Regarding Miami being an underdog in Super Bowl VII, I recall reading that at the time, Don Shula had a rep of not being able to win the big one, having been beaten with the Colts in 1964 and 1968, and Miami in 1971. His teams scored a total of one TD in those games. For those who remember the feeling about Shula before Super Bowl VII, please correct me if I am mistaken.

Also, I think the decisive and emotional way the Redskins knocked off defending champ Dallas (with Staubach as QB) in the NFC Championship influenced bettors too. I think that game (Bob Gill, other Redskin historians please confirm) is considered one of the loudest and most emotional games ever at RFK (with the 1982 NFC Championship possibly topping it 10 years later).

From what I've heard or what I remember, I'd say you're right about those two games. I don't know which one would be at the top, but I think they're No. 1 and No. 2, in whichever order.

As for Don Shula in championship games, here's an interesting note that I believe comes from Allen Barra: Shula's teams lost five title games: 1964 against Cleveland, 1968 against the Jets, 1971 against the Cowboys, 1982 against the Redskins, 1984 against the 49ers. And if I'm remember this right, that meaningless TD they scored at the end of the Super Bowl against the Jets represents the only points his teams scored in the second half of any of those games.

Of course, Shula was still a great coach, but that's an unusually bad record. Just like Bobby Layne was a great quarterback, but his playoff passing stats are really poor. Even the great ones have their difficulties.

[mwald]

Going into Super Bowl XIV, the smart money thought the Steelers would win by a blowout, maybe by four touchdowns.

Many did think that. Martin's rationale for his (opening ) ten point line was as follows:

"Malavasi's right that his team matches up pretty well with the Steelers. The offensive lines are about equal and the Rams match up well on defense, especially now that Jack Ham is out. But the Steelers have a far superior quarterback, a decided edge in the wide receivers, and a slight edge in the kicking game. It may be a low scoring game but the one question in the minds of most people is whether the Rams can score. The Steelers have lost all four on the road, they're playing on grass, and the Rams are the home team, so their home life won't be disrupted, although the Steelers have been through all that before."

[SixtiesFan]

Regarding Miami being an underdog in Super Bowl VII, I recall reading that at the time, Don Shula had a rep of not being able to win the big one, having been beaten with the Colts in 1964 and 1968, and Miami in 1971. His teams scored a total of one TD in those games. For those who remember the feeling about Shula before Super Bowl VII, please correct me if I am mistaken.

Also, I think the decisive and emotional way the Redskins knocked off defending champ Dallas (with Staubach as QB) in the NFC Championship influenced bettors too. I think that game (Bob Gill, other Redskin historians please confirm) is considered one of the loudest and most emotional games ever at RFK (with the 1982 NFC Championship possibly topping it 10 years later).

Yes, that was the feeling about Shula going into Super Bowl VII. It was said "his team came up flat" in Super Bowls III and VI. In the days before the game, Carroll Rosenbloom (he hired Don Shula as Colt coach), who was now the Ram owner, said something like "I've seen Shula freeze up on the sidelines in big games."

[BD Sullivan]

Regarding Miami being an underdog in Super Bowl VII, I recall reading that at the time, Don Shula had a rep of not being able to win the big one, having been beaten with the Colts in 1964 and 1968, and Miami in 1971. His teams scored a total of one TD in those games. For those who remember the feeling about Shula before Super Bowl VII, please correct me if I am mistaken.

Also, I think the decisive and emotional way the Redskins knocked off defending champ Dallas (with Staubach as QB) in the NFC Championship influenced bettors too. I think that game (Bob Gill, other Redskin historians please confirm) is considered one of the loudest and most emotional games ever at RFK (with the 1982 NFC Championship possibly topping it 10 years later).

In the days before the game, Carroll Rosenbloom (he hired Don Shula as Colt coach), who was now the Ram owner, said something like "I've seen Shula freeze up on the sidelines in big games."

Rosenbloom was still bitter about Shula bolting for Miami, and probably was still outraged about how what was supposed to be a huge victory celebration after SB III turned into a wake.

[SixtiesFan]

Regarding Miami being an underdog in Super Bowl VII, I recall reading that at the time, Don Shula had a rep of not being able to win the big one, having been beaten with the Colts in 1964 and 1968, and Miami in 1971. His teams scored a total of one TD in those games. For those who remember the feeling about Shula before Super Bowl VII, please correct me if I am mistaken.

Also, I think the decisive and emotional way the Redskins knocked off defending champ Dallas (with Staubach as QB) in the NFC Championship influenced bettors too. I think that game (Bob Gill, other Redskin historians please confirm) is considered one of the loudest and most emotional games ever at RFK (with the 1982 NFC Championship possibly topping it 10 years later).

In the days before the game, Carroll Rosenbloom (he hired Don Shula as Colt coach), who was now the Ram owner, said something like "I've seen Shula freeze up on the sidelines in big games."

Rosenbloom was still bitter about Shula bolting for Miami, and probably was still outraged about how what was supposed to be a huge victory celebration after SB III turned into a wake.

Yes, Rosenbloom was not a man who would take a loss like Super Bowl III very well.

[Bryan]

[As for Don Shula in championship games, here's an interesting note that I believe comes from Allen Barra: Shula's teams lost five title games: 1964 against Cleveland, 1968 against the Jets, 1971 against the Cowboys, 1982 against the Redskins, 1984 against the 49ers. And if I'm remember this right, that meaningless TD they scored at the end of the Super Bowl against the Jets represents the only points his teams scored in the second half of any of those games.

Of course, Shula was still a great coach, but that's an unusually bad record. Just like Bobby Layne was a great quarterback, but his playoff passing stats are really poor. Even the great ones have their difficulties.

The 1964 loss to Cleveland is almost as much of an upset as SB III. Those 1964 Colts were one of the great statistical teams in NFL history. #1 in offense and defense...pass catching group of Berry-Orr-Mackey...Lenny Moore had 19 TDs...Unitas had a 96.4 rating...Marchetti was consensus 1st team All-Pro at age 37. The 1964 Browns had their share of great players, but I think it was surprising how not only did the Colts lose to Cleveland, they were shut out.

It would have been interesting if in 1965 the officials had ruled Don Chandler's FG to be wide right...setting up a rematch of Colts-Browns in the title game with Tom Matte at QB. Probably would have done wonders for Shula's big game rep.

[Mark L. Ford]

Going into Super Bowl XIV, the smart money thought the Steelers would win by a blowout, maybe by four touchdowns.

No team has been a four touchdown favorite in the Super Bowl. In 1995, the 49ers were as much as a 19-point favorite over San Diego (and they won by 23), and the remains the biggest spread in the game's history. As for Steelers and the Rams in Super Bowl XIV, the line was 10 1/2 on game day, still relatively high.