Shane Lechler HOF?

[Rupert Patrick]

With Shane Lechler cut by the Texans at the age of 42 and currently unsigned, one has to think this might be the end of the line for him. After having led the NFL in punting average five times (was second in the league six times!), and his career punting average of 47.6 is the highest of all time, I think he may be of Canton cailibre. He aged really well, as his punting average for 13 years in Oakland was 47.5 and for six years in Houston was 47.6, and last year his average was 49.0 yards per punt. Seven Pro Bowls, six times first team All Pro. I'm not saying first ballot, but I think it can be argued he was the greatest punter since Ray Guy, and maybe even better than Guy.

[bachslunch]

Definitely think Shane Lechler (7/7/00s) has a solid HoF case. Certainly in the running for best pure punter of all time, am thinking. I’d vote for him given what I know.

Have heard occasional complaints that he wasn’t always the best at coffin corner pins and tended to just boom the ball as far as he could, but not sure how accurate that observation is.

[JohnTurney]

Have heard occasional complaints that he wasn’t always the best at coffin corner pins and tended to just boom the ball as far as he could, but not sure how accurate that observation is.

He will likely go to HOF but those criticisms are accurate. It depends if the net punting, Inside to 20 to TB ratio, how many kicks returned for TDs and things like that. For example, if Rupert Patricks data show Nick Lowery as tops, and I always thought that back in the 80s, that he was better than Morten, when all things considered, in the same way I think Lechler is not all that great...big leg...and due to big gross average it covered a multitude of sins. But all those "sins" are in the secondary or even tertiary stats and HOF voters may not look past net and gross.

[JohnTurney]

Ray Guy by comparison

[JuggernautJ]

I would love to see Sammy Baugh's average versus the league average...

I don't know if we need another punter in the Hall.
But I guess if they'll let _________ (fill in name of least favorite Hall of Famer) in, they'll let anybody in now.

[bachslunch]

I would love to see Sammy Baugh's average versus the league average...

I don't know if we need another punter in the Hall.
But I guess if they'll let _________ (fill in name of least favorite Hall of Famer) in, they'll let anybody in now.

I’d actually like to see Tommy Davis in. Verne Lewellen too, though he was also a position player. That would be plenty for me.

[JohnTurney]

Folks always mention Tommy Davis and he's a fine player with a 38.0 net average (missing 1965 stats, working to get them so he's around 38

Bobby Joe Green may be as high as 38.5, I think he's about 38-38.5 but until I can get to HOF, I won't have exact figure.

Sam Baker was also good net punter, maybe between 37 and 38

Paul Maguire was 36.6 which was good for the era. Jerrell Wilson is 35.2.. but what killed him was the post-1974 era, was around 36 before that

I have Yale Lary at 38.2 . . . had a lot of touchbacks. Indicates possible "boomer" like Lechler, but don't know for sure. Have never really charted punters when watching film . . . takes a lot of time/

But based on allowing fewest punt return yards on consistent bases and good net in years we can get net,,, Bobby Joe Green, IMO, may be better overall than Tommy Davis.

[bachslunch]

John, thanks for the info — really helpful to have.

I’ve based my HoF worth argument for Davis on his yards per punt average. Regarding old-time punters, he was second all time to Baugh for many years until the averages went up around the end of the century. For those whose careers ended pre-1970, top-12 list:

Sammy Baugh: 45.1
Tommy Davis: 44.7
Yale Lary: 44.3
Bob Scarpitto: 43.8
Jerry Norton: 43.8
Don Chandler: 43.5
Horace Gillom: 43.1
Frankie Albert: 43.0
Norm Van Brocklin: 42.9
Danny Villanueva: 42.8
Bobby Joe Green: 42.6
Sam Baker: 42.6

Then again, gross yards per punt is only one way to look at things. Net yards per punt likely favors Green and Baker, and both had longer careers. I’d think they’re all in the mix. Baker, Davis, Chandler, and Villanueva were all PK-P combo types, while Baugh, Lary, Albert, Norton, Scarpitto, Gillom (to an extent), and Van Brocklin were all position players as well. Lots of stuff to weigh here. But that’s what makes HoF discussions fun.

[Rupert Patrick]

I've studied punting in Denver and at Heinz Field, and what I kept track of was the distance (in yards) from the line of scrimmage and the goal line the punter was punting toward, along with the distance of the punt. In other words, if the Broncos LOS was at their 30-yard line and they punted a 45-yard punt, I would record a 70 (for 70 yards to the end zone) and 45 (for distance of the punt). I think taking into consideration the location you are punting from is very important, and with PBP we can do this. I could have added a column to record the return but I was more concerned with how the altitude in Denver and the conditions in Pittsburgh affected punting.

When I graphed distance from the end zone versus punting average, the first thing I found (and PBP from more stadiums will need to be analyzed) was that there was a point approximately 60 yards from the opposing end zone where the punter's punting average drops off like a ski slope. This is because he starts trying to angle the kick toward the sidelines, or not put his full foot into it so it doesn't go into the end zone. The so-called "60-yard rule" was similar in Denver and Heinz field, in home and away games.

We've also got all the gamebooks for the Raiders, their entire history, where somebody could go thru each of Guy's punts (and Lechler's too, since we've got all the Texan's gamebooks also) and do an analysis. I was surprised to see that Lechler's net average was not so good due to the high punt return average. On the other hand, (and I'm not knocking John; these graphs are great) I would have like to have seen similar graphs for Guy for Gross punting vs NFL Average, percentage of punts returned, etc. to see how he differed from Lechler. If anybody is interested in doing a game by game analysis of Guy or Lechler's punts, message me as I've already got spreadsheets that I developed for my Denver and Pittsburgh studies and would just need to make a few modifications to.

I believe Shane Lechler had the strongest leg of any punter in pro football history. The fact that he finished first or second in punting average in a 31 or 32-team league eleven times in his career, and retired with the highest career punting average in history is a point in his favor. Also, the fact that he played for 18 seasons, and retired second in career punts (only behind Jeff Feagles), and in his final season had a punting average of 49.0 at age 42. Also, Lechler played half his games at sea level, meaning he did not derive an altitude advantage. Had he played his career in Denver instead of Oakland, his career punting average would have been several yards higher.

[JohnTurney]

John, thanks for the info — really helpful to have.

I’ve based my HoF worth argument for Davis on his yards per punt average. Regarding old-time punters, he was second all time to Baugh for many years until the averages went up around the end of the century. For those whose careers ended pre-1970, top-12 list:

Sammy Baugh: 45.1
Tommy Davis: 44.7
Yale Lary: 44.3
Bob Scarpitto: 43.8
Jerry Norton: 43.8
Don Chandler: 43.5
Horace Gillom: 43.1
Frankie Albert: 43.0
Norm Van Brocklin: 42.9
Danny Villanueva: 42.8
Bobby Joe Green: 42.6
Sam Baker: 42.6

Then again, gross yards per punt is only one way to look at things. Net yards per punt likely favors Green and Baker, and both had longer careers. I’d think they’re all in the mix. Baker, Davis, Chandler, and Villanueva were all PK-P combo types, while Baugh, Lary, Albert, Norton, Scarpitto, Gillom (to an extent), and Van Brocklin were all position players as well. Lots of stuff to weigh here. But that’s what makes HoF discussions fun.

Don't get me wrong, I have no issue with Davis, he had a high gross and high net...I was just saying there are a couple of others with lower gross and just as high or higher net. But my problem is I need to get to HOF to verify and complete years I don't have.\

Chandler had a 36.6 net, Lary 38.2, Danny Villanueva I have not done, but he gave up a lot of yards and of course, not all of that is on punter, poor coverage could be the cause as much as outkicking coverage. Gillon had high net, 38 or so, but then kind of had issues with returns and blocks.

In doing my research these guys are stadning out
Tommy Davis
Yale Lary
Horace Gillom
Bobby Joe Green
Sam Baker
David Lee (though last part of career fell apart some)
Bob Waterfield (better net than Van Brocklin)

then a gap
Bobby Walder (but again, issues late in career)
Mike Bragg